How To Use On Base Percentage As A Betting Strategy

The 2012 MLB season is underway, and already handicappers are looking at different variables that could provide an advantage on the sports betting line. One strategy employed by the sharpest of the sharp baseball handicappers, is the use of on base percentage. As the name suggests, on base percentage is used to determine what percentage of a team’s at bats allow them to put runners in scoring position. For all intents and purposes, a team with a higher on base percentage is more likely to win a game, because more runners are coming in to score. Today we will look at how on base percentage helps you with your betting online games.

Ideally, the top teams in the MLB position their top three on base percentage players in the first, fourth and seventh spots in the lineup. The reason they spread the three players out, is to balance out their lineup. Another reason they do this, is because the first, fourth and seventh batters are often the ones leading off the inning. In other words, you want the guy with the best chance to get on base to start the inning, as he can set the groundwork for the batters behind him to put the ball in motion and also get on base to score runs.

What’s worth noting is that a lot of players with high on base percentage may also have a low batting average. From reading MLB blogs, we are given the impression, that the batting average is so low, because the batter can take a pitch, but can’t necessarily put the ball in play. Meaning to say, the lead off, fourth and seventh batters often are ranked first to third in regards to taking walks, but also in strikeouts. By reading which team has the best on base percentage, you can usually take them to win your wager.

 
What Is Slugging Percentage In MLB

As we round out the first month of the MLB season, many Bodog handicappers from the other major sports are looking to place money on their favorite baseball teams. For all intents and purposes, baseball is the most profitable sport to handicap, because the regular season is longer then any other sports league, and there are plenty of statistics you can focus your attention on. One of the statistics that many sharp handicappers look at is team slugging percentage. A team’s slugging percentage can indicate that they have better price per head odds then their opponent.

What is slugging percentage? Slugging percentage is a direct measurement of the combination of singles, doubles, triples and home runs divided by at bats. That is to say, a player or team that accumulates a greater amount of singles, doubles, triples and home runs after dividing that number by the team’s total at bats, is more likely to score runs then a player or team with a lower number. Slugging percentage calculates the total power of a hitter, by looking more closely at where each hit ended up. Here is an MLB blogs example.

Babe Ruth is often considered the greatest power hitter ever, as gave the New York Yankees the reputation that they have today. In Ruth’s first season with the Yankees in 1920, he had 458 at bats, in which he had 172 hits. Within those 172 hits, Ruth accumulated 73 singles, 36 doubles, nine triples and 54 home runs. Using the aforementioned formula to determine Ruth’s slugging percentage this would be the result.

SLG = (73 x one) + (36 x two) + (nine x three) + (54 x four) = 388

We would then take 388 which is the total hits from the at bats and divide it by 458, which results in 0.847. In baseball if you have a slugging percentage higher then 800 then you are considered one of the better hitters in the game. At the same time, hitting lower then 700 is considered very bad.

 
How Offense Influence MLB Betting Lines

We are only a week into the 2012 MLB season, and already many Bodog handicappers have hit the panic button on their accounts. Despite it only being the first week of the season, betters from across the globe, have already made several mistakes in their practices that have put them in debt, rather then in the profit circle. One area that has influenced the odds is the offense of several teams. Simply put, the first few weeks of the season is the time of year when terrible teams get off to hot starts, while good teams take a little longer. As a result the lines are skewed. Here is a look at some early mistakes.

For many bettors, spring training is the worst indication of whom they should bet upon in the regular season. Since many teams are facing opponent’s minor league rosters, fans automatically assume, that if the LA Angels and Philadelphia Phillies are lighting it up in spring training offensively, they will do the same to start the regular season. Unfortunately, as we have seen this first week, the offenses of both teams have struggled. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are both injured for the Phillies, while Albert Pujols hasn’t hit a home run yet this season. For the latter, this is the first MLB blog season that he has yet to record a home run 10 games into a season. Thus fans are wondering, could Albert Pujols be human after all?

Another reason to ignore the offenses influence on betting lines is because some teams are playing well above expectation. As we have seen early, teams such as the Baltimore Orioles and LA Dodgers, two teams that have struggled greatly the past few seasons, are torching betting lines. The Orioles are one of the top 10 teams in home runs so far this season. With this in mind, laying off the lines to at least begin the year, is important for your bank roll.

 
Betting Season To Season Fluctuations In MLB

With the baseball betting season set to begin for another season later this week, fans, analysts and professional handicappers alike are all looking for an edge. One trend that takes a lot of work, but is also quite popular, is called season-to-season fluctuation. As the name suggests, the goal of the handicapper, is to look at teams that may peak or decline from one season to the next. You can find the odds on all 30 teams right here, as we look at this intriguing gambling method.

Season to season fluctuations tend to happen to an average of five to 10 teams annually. For instance, in 2010, the San Diego Padres won 91 games, but in 2011 finished with a record of 71 – 91. With only 72 hours to predict who will flop this year, the team with the highest expectation to hit a road block this year, are the Arizona Diamondbacks. After being mediocre for the better part of three years, everything went right for Arizona last season, as they had two separate 19 game winning streaks, en route to capturing the NL West crown with 94 wins. The 94 wins were 29 more then what the 2010 Diamondbacks managed to win! As a result, as it stands right now, the MLB odds of another NL West crown are slim to none, as the bookies have set the over under on total Diamondbacks wins at 86.

At the same time, a lot of people are anticipating that the Minnesota Twins experience a bounce back this coming season, after a dreadful 2011. The often consistent Twins, completely fell off the rails a season ago, as they lost both Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau to injuries. This season, many bettors believe that the Twins will surprise people, by winning 80 games. In theory, if they have a healthy duo of Mauer and Morneau that win total should only increase.

 
How To Bet On Spring Training Action

March Madness betting is the most wonderful time of year, as it allows bettors from other sports, an opportunity to turn a profit. For baseball handicappers, March Madness means spring training is here! Similar to the regular season, spring training has a plethora of games for bettors to put their sports betting systems to use in, as they practice handicapping their favorite teams, before the start of the regular season. Today we will look at what to consider before wagering on spring training action.

Whether you are new or more experienced in spring training betting, the number one rule is to wait until after the first set of roster cuts, before you start making any wagers. For all intents and purposes, the first two weeks of spring training, like the first two weeks of the regular season, are times in which teams are ironing out the kinks. In other words, after the first set of cuts, you will begin to get a rough idea, of what each team will look like headed into the regular season. Therefore, when you place your MLB wager, you will know that betting the favorite is actually a wise decision, because that team really is the favorite.

Another issue to handicap is who the starting pitcher is, and who the pitchers to follow in the game are. For example, a good team may have their starter pitch the first four innings, before turning to players they have invited to camp to battle for bullpen jobs. At the same time, a weaker team may start the game with a prospect, and have all prospects throughout the lineup. Meaning to say, when you place a wager on the game, your money is best served with the team with the more veteran lineup.

 
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