When it comes to sports betting on the MLB, tracking the totals on each game requires you to find interesting trends. One such trend that has a significant impact on the outcome of the amount of runs scored in a baseball game is the umpire effect. As the name suggests, depending on who is behind home plate, you can predict whether the game will go over or under the total. Today we’ll look at the difference in umpire approaches.

When it comes to handicapping umpires, it is all about the strike zone. Some umpires use a wider strike zone then others. As a result, a game may be higher or lower in the amount of total runs scored then in other games. For instance, in 2006, when umpire Mike Everett was the home plate umpire, the bookie software total went over on 22 occasions and under just 12 times. Everett had a narrow strike zone, which in turn allowed for the hitters to walk and get on base more. <

If you look at the 2006 baseball year as a whole, you will notice, that 23 umpires saw their totals go over 60 percent of the time, while others saw their totals go under 40 percent of the time. What’s more? In the games with Everett behind home plate, 2006 and 2007 were completely different years. In essence, in 2006 as we noted, the games went over the total 22 times and under 12 times. Yet, in 2007 the games went over the total 12 times and under the total 18 times. Meaning to say, what exactly changed so much?

Similar to a sportsbook adjusting the odds on a pitcher start after start, it is fair to assume that pitchers also adjusted their approach year after year to the umpire. In other words, the pitcher made adjustments to assure that they would get the strikes according to the umpire’s strike zone.