As is the case when wagering on any sport, players are always looking for the edge to get that addition to their winning percentage when betting on baseball. Many bet against streaks of significant length, while others wager based on pitching match ups, or record against the opposition. One of the most proven ways to succeed when wagering on MLB baseball however is being able to accurately predict which teams will turn around from year to year, meaning to be able to project which successful teams one year will fall off the next, and which that terrible one year will improve significantly the next. Everything from free agent additions to players returning from injury will have an impact on a team turning it around from season to season, but one proven way to get an edge in predicting which teams will improve.

The most effective way of predicting which teams will turn it around from year to year is to pay attention to the amount of one-run games that team won or lost. A game that is decided by one run can sway very easily, and the probability that year in and out teams will win or lose one-run games is extremely low. Therefore, if one team had success winning a large percentage of one-run games in 2009, the likelihood is that they will not be able to repeat that success in 2010. An example of this is the Seattle Mariners, who were 35-20 in one-run games in 2009. This year, their sports betting success in such contests likely won't be so high.