Perhaps the most popular MLB betting option is that of the over/under. Throughout the last decade, more and more baseball betting handicappers have switched from money line wagers to totals as it is far less complex than picking a team to win out right. For years, handicappers have shown a high success rate at picking totals. Yet recently, betting on totals has become harder as umpires begin to play more of a factor into the outcome of games. Today we examine what sort of effect the umpire has on the total runs scored in a game.

Essentially over/under betting requires fans to add up the total amount of runs scored in a baseball game and wager on whether that total is higher or lower than the predicted outcome by sportsbooks. For instance, if the run total predicted for the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins game is nine, your goal is to bet on the outcome to be either 10 or more runs for betting the over or eight or fewer runs for the under.

The home plate umpire is a crucial factor in your decision for which side in an over/under to take, as the way they call the strike zone can determine the number of runs produced. For instance, some umpires have a narrow strike zone, which works in favor of the batter, because more pitches will be called for balls, allowing more runners on base. Conversely, other home plate umpires have wider strike zones, which in turn keep the amount of runs lower. The reason for this is that a pitch that would otherwise be considered wide of home plate would now be considered a strike.

Statistically speaking, since 2006 the numbers for most umpires tend to differ from year to year. One point many experts have suggested, is that pitchers and batters are adjusting their styles of play for each home plate umpire that calls their games.